| title: | Attribution of phenological changes: Estonian case study |
|---|---|
| reg no: | ETF5836 |
| project type: | Estonian Science Foundation research grant |
| subject: |
1.11. Natural Geography (incl Meteorology, Geophysics) |
| status: | accepted |
| institution: | TU Faculty of Biology and Geography |
| head of project: | Rein Ahas |
| duration: | 01.01.2004 - 31.12.2006 |
| description: | Changes in phenological timeseries provide a significant topic for determining and analysing the impact of climate change. By now, the existence of phenological trends has been described thoroughly and due to high-quality database such studies are carried out also in Estonia. Studies that would find out causes behind trends and their connections to changing environmental conditions have been carried out less. Therefore the main topic in the II chapter of the 4. report about climate change in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) is dedicated to establishing the causes for natural changes (snow, ice, phenology, areas etc.) registered on Earth - "attribution". The aim of the current project is attribution of cause of phenological trends on the basis of Estonian case study and applying the results in linking the causes of climate change with the results: 1) establishing factors that cause phenological trends; 2) analysing the impact of those factors on organisms; 3) prove to what extent are these changes connected to human activities and/or processes in nature 4) provide decision makers and scientists with more sufficient data for understanding and controlling the changing world; A significant aim of the phenological research group of Geography Institute of Tartu University is expanding their knowledge and skills with a help of a long-term and purposeful project. The following steps are going to be taken: 1) Compiling a database that is fit for analysis, linking observation data with natural conditions at the observation spot. 2) Working out methodology, with an aim of using more recent methods like Wavelet analysis, an analysis based on Bayes`s probabilities and phenological models, in studying connections. 3) Work during the 2nd and the 3rd year will be concentrated on analysis and methodology improvement. There is going to be a need for exchanging materials with IPCC 2 workgroup and making clear generalisations for decision makers (international and national processes of climate changes) and publishing them. |
| project group | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | name | institution | position | |
| 1. | Anto Aasa | TÜ GI | erakorraline teadur | |
| 2. | Rein Ahas | TU Faculty of Biology and Geography | researcher. | |