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The EU membership makes the diversification of Estonian rural life more and more important. The restrictions in the quantitative development of the traditional agricultural production will make it essential to make the right choices from the alternative agricultural activities. In recent years berry production has gained momentum in Estonia. Berry cultivation as a branch of horticulture helps to induce entrepreneurial potential, increase the income of the rural population, expand job market, guarantee a more effective land use and induce export potential. The Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences of the Estonian Agricultural University has studied the economic efficiency of strawberry and cultivated blueberry growing in Estonia. The cultivation of these crops is proved as profitable. The economic and marketing conditions will be changed under the CAP reform, and it is important to study the efficiency of berry growing as a complex branch of agriculture and investigate its future perspectives. The present project aims at working out a simulation model for berry cultivation on the basis of input and output information. Statistically reliable parameters of the simulation model are found out on the basis of the data collected from the producers and a separate analysis of competitive power development. The simulation model will be tested on the data from different regions of Estonia and the working hypothesis ordains that the model be used in simplifying the decision-making process both for the producers and the policy-makers. The simulation model should become a tool to assess the efficiency of integrated berry growing, in forecasting the total yield of different berry crops to conclude selling contracts, identify the investment needs and the technologies to be used. The general aim of the project is to guarantee the diversification and the sustainable development of rural economy through berry cultivation. |