| title: | Analysis of causes of climate variability and change in Estonia based on large-scale atmospheric circulation and using a regional climate model |
|---|---|
| reg no: | ETF5786 |
| project type: | Estonian Science Foundation research grant |
| subject: |
1.11. Natural Geography (incl Meteorology, Geophysics) |
| status: | accepted |
| institution: | TU Faculty of Biology and Geography |
| head of project: | Jaak Jaagus |
| duration: | 01.01.2004 - 31.12.2007 |
| description: | The main objective of the project is to apply the regional climate RegCm3 for Estonia and its neighbouring territories and to estimate quantitatively climate variations and changes using the model. A special interest is paid to analysis of different trajectories of cyclones and to their influence on weather. To gain the general objective of the project, the following main study tasks are planned. 1. To apply the regional climate model for Estonia. For that, appropriate hardware and software, and data should be acquired. Further, the model will be validated on a base of observation data from the past. The model sensitivity to different physical parameters will be verified. 2. To control the data base of daily circulation types according to the Wangenheim-Girs classification and to analyse them in relationship with weather variability in Estonia. The previous studies have indicated that this large scale classification gives the best description of atmospheric circulation in Estonia and on its neighbouring areas. 3. To create a data base of trajectories of cyclones in Europe, to analyse their dynamics and influence on weather variability in Estonia. 4. To carry out model experiments using the regional climate model RegCM3 for different circulation types. The output presents climate parameters corresponding to the circulation types. Using the model, it should be possible to verify the relationships between circulation and climate. 5. To realise model experiments for different global climate change scenarios. The main hypothesis used in this study presumes that since atmospheric circulation is the determinant climate forming factor in Estonia, causes of climate change should be found in changes in circulation. This proposition could be successfully approved using the regional climate model. |
| project group | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | name | institution | position | |
| 1. | Jaak Jaagus | TU Faculty of Biology and Geography | docent (Ass. Prof.) | |
| 2. | Piia Post | Tartu Ülikool | lektor | |
| 3. | Mait Sepp | Tartu Ülikool | doktorant | |
| 4. | Oliver Tomingas | Tartu Ülikool | doktorant | |